Cyberwars of the past and future: the relationship and what to expect in the future

The digital world is developing at such an accelerated pace that it affects more and more areas of human activity. On the one hand, all this implies a significant simplification of people's lives and work, allows them to automate many processes, and gain access to diverse information. But on the other hand, online activities carry a serious risk for both individuals and organizations and even entire countries. In particular, today such a word as "cyberwar" is increasingly used. In this case, we are talking about actions that can cause serious damage not physically, but electronically. Here, information acts as a weapon, and computers and the World Wide Web are used as tools for implementation.

The main goals of cyber warfare are to cause harm in the economic, political and many other areas by influencing the public or the country's leadership with carefully prepared information. Despite the fact that here we are talking more about the psychological component, confrontation in cyberspace carries a serious danger, including for life. And this is due to the massive spread of the Internet, as well as computer technologies throughout the world. Today, it is impossible to imagine a single enterprise or institution where the corresponding devices would not be used. Any malicious impact, regardless of whether it is directed at factories, infrastructure facilities, hospitals, carries a serious threat to the security of countries. And no one is immune from this.

As part of today's review, we will dwell in more detail on what modern cyber wars are. We will tell you how the Stuxnet virus, which first appeared on the market quite a long time ago, radically changed existing approaches in the field of cyber security and what changes in information wars it entailed. We will tell you what impact modern cyber wars have on global politics and what to expect from them in the foreseeable future. The information provided will allow you to better understand this issue, as well as understand all the dangers and risks, and find the most suitable methods of counteraction.

What is this Stuxnet virus and why did it have such an impact on modern cyber warfare?

The attack using the Stuxnet virus was first discovered in 2010. And this period can be called a turning point in the history of cyber warfare in general. The fact is that such an impact was first directed not at the information, but at the physical infrastructure. This virus was created to disrupt the operation of Iranian nuclear centrifuges. Stuxnet turned out to be unique in its own way. With its help, not only was penetration into the company's internal network organized in order to collect espionage information. The hacker also managed to physically affect critical elements of the production process. This is what turned seemingly classic malware into an advanced cyber weapon.

The peculiarity of Stuxnet was that this program was able to use a number of complex vulnerabilities existing in SCADA systems, which were responsible for managing internal technological processes in such installations as centrifuges. As a result, having gained control over these vulnerabilities, the virus could significantly slow down, and in most cases even disable equipment at a facility belonging to the Iranian nuclear sector. As a result, Iran's nuclear program, which was developing at an accelerated pace at the time, managed to cause quite serious damage.

We give this example to show that malware is not only data theft, cyber espionage, gaining access to user devices for the purpose of blackmail and extortion. It is also a tool that is capable of causing real physical damage to enterprises and many other objects. Before the Stuxnet virus appeared on the market, all this was considered something theoretical, far from reality, let's say, a "fairy tale from the future". But in reality, this very future turned out to be much closer than previously assumed. And today, the fact that software can become a real weapon, capable of if not destroying, then causing serious damage to the work of the most important infrastructure facility is already the norm. It was the awareness of this moment that led to the fact that cybersecurity policy has undergone fundamental changes, not only at the user level, but also at the state level.

What is a new generation of cyber warfare?

The appearance of the Stuxnet virus on the market led to the world market rapidly changing all existing approaches in the field of cybersecurity. And the problem was not even that its attack was aimed at a certain infrastructure. Its very principle became a catalyst for the launch of a new era of cyber warfare. One where everything is arranged much more complexly, and the consequences have become more destructive. Following Stuxnet, other similar malware programs, such as NotPetya and WannaCry, quickly appeared in cyberspace. They were also able to demonstrate in practice how modern cyber threats have transformed and that they can be aimed at absolutely any area of human activity. For them, it makes no difference whether we are talking about the financial sector, a government structure, manufacturing enterprises or, say, the education sector.

Their spread across the market was so rapid, and the traces left behind were destructive, that the global system as a whole could not respond in a timely manner to all these risks and provide decent protection methods. Another problem was that all the classic security measures that had been used in practice up to that time, when faced with such malicious software, were simply unprepared and, as a result, completely ineffective.

Those who work in the field of cybersecurity today, who know in detail what threats the modern market faces in this niche, claim that the influence of the Stuxnet virus is still observed today. In particular, its trace is clearly visible in many modern conflicts. Surely many of you have heard about the recent pager explosions that occurred in the suburbs of Beirut. This is what clearly showed once again that advanced modern technologies can work not only for the benefit, but also cause real damage. During this attack, quite a large number of people were killed and injured. Here we will not delve into all the nuances, talk about who was the "positive hero" here: the one who carried out this attack or the one who became its victim. We just want to say that many experts who understand this area claim that this was nothing more than a modern cyberattack using the latest generation of virus software. And the fact that it once again emphasized the vulnerability of modern systems is a fact.

What lessons did the world community learn from the explosions in Lebanon

The situation that happened in Lebanon is This is a vivid example of how malware can literally completely destroy physical infrastructure. The pager explosions showed that any technical devices, including fairly advanced ones, can be vulnerable to attacks. And all of this is the lesson that makes us return to the Stuxnet virus again and again. That is, we are now at a stage when it is impossible to assume that anything around us can pose a serious danger. And what will happen if a similar attack is carried out on children's electronic toys? It is difficult to even imagine the consequences of such an attack. We cannot discount the excessively high risks for strategically important objects, and without reference to territory - any country can be subject to such attacks.

And all those events that took place in Beirut showed the world the urgent need to develop solutions that will be able to resist such cyber threats. That is, now the line between physical and digital dangers is systematically erased and, unfortunately, there is a high probability that this trend will continue in the foreseeable future. This means that the impact of cyber threats on the real world will increase. The Stuxnet virus showed that any software has vulnerabilities and that they can be identified and used for one's own purposes. And this is what threatens the security of not only an individual, but also of states as a whole.

How are cyber wars and global politics related?

The world community began to realize the seriousness of cyber threats after the Stuxnet attack was exposed and received wide publicity. And this led to the fact that at the state level of almost every country in the world began to ask questions about ensuring high levels of security for work on the Internet. Moreover, strategies that have become a key aspect of national security have been actively developed. The world's leading countries are investing enormous efforts and money in such developments, as they understand what such an attack can entail. And the situation that recently occurred between Israel and Lebanon has once again shown that no international conflict today will do without confrontation in cyberspace.

Gradually, the world community began to realize that such attacks can have the same destructive consequences as classic armed conflicts. Many of the developments carried out have been successful, but this should not stop there. Protection technologies must be constantly expanded, improved, adapted to current trends of our time. But it is impossible to say that today the international initiative has provided complete protection from such threats. More coordinated actions are needed here. This means that the world's leading countries must work together to solve the problem that has arisen. Although, to tell the truth, it will be quite difficult to implement something like this in practice.

What else can we expect from cyber wars in the foreseeable future?

Today, when technologies are developing at an accelerated pace, when they affect more and more areas of human activity, cyber wars have ceased to be stories from the science fiction section. This is already reality. And this means that it must be recognized and in no case ignored. Digital attacks on important infrastructure, cyber sabotage, cyber espionage - all this carries a fairly serious threat to the world community. And do not think that such a problem will not affect you personally. Cyber wars have no boundaries, no taboos. They can manifest themselves anywhere there is Internet. Today, the arena of conflicts is gradually shifting to the digital environment. This means that anyone who cares about their own safety should be prepared for this.

Even without going too far ahead, we can highlight a number of aspects that may well become relevant in the foreseeable future. Here are just a few hypotheses that are highly likely to be realized:

• Accelerated development of cyber weapons. Today, the world community has already become familiar with various risks and dangers associated with the information environment. In particular, we are talking about malicious software, various hacker attacks, viruses, botnets. But this is not the end of all the dangers and risks. There is a high probability that in the foreseeable future, even more complex cyber weapons will appear on the market, carrying much more serious threats and risks. And one of the most significant roles in all this can be played by artificial intelligence, neural networks, machine learning - there are prerequisites for the fact that all this will be used to create malware of a new level, endowed with high intellectual properties. This is what will allow them to independently adapt to the specifics of the environment in which they find themselves, evolve in order to bypass all kinds of protection, restrictions. Many experts agree that cyber weapons based on artificial intelligence - this is something we will encounter quite quickly.
• Increasing scale and destructiveness of hacker attacks. Hacker attacks of the future will be more detailed and well-directed. The probability that they will be of such a scale that they will be able to paralyze the work of even well-protected critical infrastructure is quite high. It cannot be ruled out that they will be focused on energy system facilities, the banking environment, and global transport is quite high. Cyberattacks of the future have every chance of becoming something similar to weapons of mass destruction. That is, they will cause very serious damage to the country's economy, can cause mass chaos, unrest, and in some cases even carry a serious risk to the health and lives of people.
• Loss of symmetry, which would be typical of classical wars. In particular, we are talking about the fact that the results of battles that can occur on a real battlefield are directly related to military power, available resources, complexity and thoughtfulness of tactics. In contrast to all this, cyber wars of the future will be asymmetric. That is, the same small group of people with the relevant knowledge will be able to carry out such an attack and literally paralyze the work of the object it is aimed at. That is, they will carry quite high risks even for developed countries. This suggests that a kind of "cyber states" may soon be formed, consisting of small groups of people with certain knowledge and, as a result, cyber power. And there is a risk that they will be able to harm the recognized world giants.
• The role of legislation and the state as a whole will be significantly increased in the area of organizing protection against cyber attacks. Today, the world community is already actively working on the understanding of the regulatory framework that can regulate cyberspace as a whole. But we have already said that this work will be extremely complex and ambiguous. And the main problem is that cyber war is something that has no national borders. Moreover, all these technologies are developing so rapidly that they cannot be counteracted in time. And not only in technical terms, but also in legislative terms. Today, there are a huge number of gaps, including in the sphere of regulatory acts, which are widely used by Internet attackers in their activities. Gradually, the role of the state in protecting against cyber threats will increase, legislative norms will become more stringent and relevant decisions will be made very quickly. This is what will help prevent serious consequences and minimize the risks of such unauthorized influence.
• Increasing the level of awareness of the consumer market. Ensuring your own protection when working on the Internet is something that absolutely everyone should think about, regardless of whether they use the network for active work or to view news, social networks. The fact that work with cyber threats will be carried out at the state level is good, but it is also important not to forget about personal safety. This means that each person needs to understand what risks and threats they face today, what measures they can implement in order to minimize all possible dangers. It is important to understand that, by and large, each of us can become a participant in such a cyber war. And in this case, protection will largely depend on understanding the problem itself, having the knowledge that will allow you to protect yourself personally and all your actions in cyberspace.
• Higher predictability rates in the field of cyber threats. This is one of the most difficult tasks that needs to be implemented as quickly as possible. But still, let if not all, then a number of potential dangers when working on the network can be predicted today. And automation of processes, as well as the use of artificial intelligence can provide significant assistance in this. On the one hand, they themselves pose a huge threat to cybersecurity, but on the other hand, they can also help in the fight against such threats, as well as in their forecasting. But in any case, there will be a high probability of an increase in cyber attacks on critical infrastructure. These are not only power supply and water supply facilities, but also the healthcare system, transport, and the banking sector. This is where it is primarily necessary to think about ensuring high security rates. As an option, we can try to reduce their dependence on digital technologies, because it is on them that most modern cyber attacks are focused. According to many experts, such decisions will send us back to the past. Is this good or bad? Everything is relative, since we need to understand what awaits us in the future.
• Cyber wars will have a significant impact on world politics. The fact that such technologies will be introduced wherever destabilization of the political system and collapse of the economy is required is more a fact than an assumption. They will be used as a basis for cyber espionage, collection of compromising information, which can subsequently be used as a means of influence in negotiations. That is, cyber wars can be launched anywhere: economics, politics, social sphere, etc. They have no boundaries, no restrictions.
• Privatization of cyber threats. It cannot be ruled out that cyber wars in general can become private. This means that they can be waged not only on behalf of a particular state, but also by a single company or even a person. The main difficulty here is that it will be very difficult to identify such a problem. Attackers can act extremely carefully, consistently, targeting a specific target. And the fact that the threat was very serious may be revealed only when the consequences become catastrophic. All this will lead to the fact that the boundaries between "crime" and "war" may become too blurred, which in turn will also complicate work with them at the legislative level.

All this once again confirms the fact that it is necessary to put many times more effort into ensuring cybersecurity. Moreover, all this must be implemented at different levels, starting from the user device and ending with the state level. It is necessary to develop innovative technologies, implement multi-level protection methods. But it is also very important to raise the level of awareness of the consumer market, conduct various educational events in the field of cybersecurity. And here it will be impossible to shift responsibility to someone else: everyone must be aware of the role they play in the field of cybersecurity. This is the only way to cope with the upcoming challenges and ensure sufficiently high security indicators within the framework of the digital era in which we find ourselves today and will be in it for a very, very long time.

Summing up

The Stuxnet virus left a rather serious legacy, which is only gaining momentum. Almost 15 years later, it continues to have a serious impact on modern approaches to protection against Internet attacks. We must understand that cyberattacks will improve, will become more complex and sophisticated. And we must gradually prepare for them. Now, artificial intelligence technologies are actively used in this area in order to identify and prevent such problems.

Serious threats can be expected in any area, from critical infrastructure or even user devices belonging to people with a certain level of access. Today, large-scale research is already underway in the field of artificial intelligence. It is planned to create neural networks that could identify and prevent such attacks. They will need to be implemented in various areas of life, where security is paramount.

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